← HP Wolves Den Store Championships HVN Season
Water AlliesTier 2
at HP Wolves Den Store Championships HVN Season
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1347
· median 1347
· range 1267–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1288
Q3 1453
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
